The Oscars ceremony is one of the most anticipated and watched cultural events of the year. With the rise of prediction market platforms, fans are more engaged than ever. Critics, awards pundits, and film fans have long made predicting the outcomes a hobby (sometimes even a career). Now, any film buff can get in on the predictive action thanks to platforms like Kalshi.
Prediction markets aggregate thousands of opinions into real-time probabilities, representing market opinion on potential Oscar outcomes. Whether you want to participate in prediction markets or not, they can provide some interesting context for your viewing parties. Namely, they show us what the market (collective of predictors) thinks.
Does the market match up with what popular film and media publications say? Let’s take a look at the major categories, comparing Kalshi’s probabilities with predictions from Variety and Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter. Kalshi probabilities and prices were taken at the time of writing and are subject to change.
Best Picture
- Variety: Sinners
- The Hollywood Reporter: Sinners
- Kalshi: One Battle After Another, 74%
Kalshi predictors like the Leonardo DiCaprio-starring, Paul Thomas Anderson-directed epic over the critical darling Sinners. The latter sits at 23% as of this writing. Predictors are already hoping for an upset in the ceremony’s biggest category.
Best Actor
- Variety: Michael B. Jordan for Sinners
- The Hollywood Reporter: Timothee Chalamet for Marty Supreme
- Kalshi: Michael B. Jordan for Sinners, 50%
Here we have a tighter race between two darlings, according to critics and predictors alike. Michael B. Jordan is favored by a narrow margin, with contracts at $0.50 for “yes” results. Timothee Chalamet trails slightly at $0.40, with Leo in a distant third: $0.06 for a Yes result.
Best Actress
- Variety: Jessie Buckley for Hamnet
- The Hollywood Reporter: Jessie Buckley for Hamnet
- Kalshi: Jessie Buckley for Hamnet, 95%
It’s a clean sweep, according to everyone in the Best Actress category. The film adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s novel of the same name follows the aftermath of Shakespeare’s son’s tragic death. Jessie Buckley earned near-universal acclaim for her performance, and she sits at a whopping $0.95 per contract at Kalshi. Nobody else comes close, with Rose Byrne in second for her performance in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You.
Best Animated Feature
- Variety: KPop Demon Hunters
- The Hollywood Reporter: KPop Demon Hunters
- Kalshi: Kpop Demon Hunters, 94%
Is it any surprise that an earworm factory like KPop Demon Hunters leads the way in the animated feature category? Kalshi has it at 94%, close to Jessie Buckley’s chokehold on the Best Actress category. Perennial nominees Disney and Pixar are both in the running, but barely. Zootopia 2 is at 6% while Pixar’s Elio has such low chances that Kalshi doesn’t even offer a price on the “No” contracts.
Best Supporting Actress
- Variety: Amy Madigan for Weapons
- The Hollywood Reporter: Amy Madigan for Weapons
- Kalshi: Amy Madigan for Weapons
Another clean sweep! Amy Madigan earns a 45% listing at Kalshi thanks to her performance in Weapons. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) and Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) follow at 27% and 24%, respectively.
Best Supporting Actor
- Variety: Delroy Lindo for Sinners
- The Hollywood Reporter: Delroy Lindo for Sinners
- Kalshi: Sean Penn for One Battle After Another, 71%
The critics disagree with Kalshi predictors on this one. Sean Penn has a hearty lead on the predictions platform. The top critic pic, Delroy Lindo, isn’t even in second in the Kalshi race. That honor goes to Stellan Skarsgard for Sentimental Value (19%).
Best Director
- Variety: Ryan Coogler for Sinners
- The Hollywood Reporter: Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
- Kalshi: Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another, 91%
Kalshi folks and The Hollywood Reporter agree on this one, with Kalshi predictors giving PTA a wide berth. Ryan Coogler, Variety’s pick, trails at 8%, which could be a good value if you expect him to take the award.
How Do Prediction Markets Work?
If you’re seeing these Kalshi odds and thinking prediction markets could be a fun way to engage in the Oscars this year, you’re not alone. The site is available in most states, and it offers a way to predict outcomes with a $10 trade bonus for new Kalshi accounts.
In a prediction market, you purchase contracts for a specific outcome. In the case of the Oscars, that could mean Timothee Chalamet winning the Best Actor award, with a price of $0.40 on Yes or $0.60 on No. You can buy multiple contracts on an outcome if you wish. If your contracts settle as correct, you win $1 per contract.
Say you bought 3 contracts for Yes in the example above, and he won. You would pay ~$1.20 (plus fees) and win $3.00 on a success.
Prediction markets also allow you to sell contracts before an outcome is determined. You can use this to hedge your predictions or earn a profit if the price changes in your favor.
Watch The Oscars on March 15
Once your predictions are in, you can watch the 98th Academy Awards on Sunday, March 15, 2026, at 7 p.m. ET. They’re hosted by Conan O’Brien this year and available on ABC or Hulu.
