We’ve already covered the favorites for this year’s Oscars; it’s an all-out fight between One Battle After Another and Sinners, while Timothée Chalamet eyes Best Actor for Marty Supreme and Jessie Buckley closes in on Best Actress for Hamnet. The betting market is quite clear on who its favorites are, but it’s all in the hands of the Academy voters. Here are some unlikely but possible picks that could topple the assumed winners.
Sinners for Best Picture
If you’re fading the market, then you’ll need to see which way they’re pointing. Prediction markets provide a full breakdown of the latest odds for the Oscars, with contract prices sourced straight from the moviegoing crowd. They’re a handy barometer that shows who the crowds like, without much external influence. As of writing, One Battle After Another is the runaway favorite at 80% on most prediction markets.
That leaves you with one realistic choice for Best Picture – Sinners. It’s second by most predictions and has a lot going for it as a movie, not least the fact that we enjoyed Sinners more than One Battle After Another. Sinners has already made history for its 16 nominations this year, plus it’s a great horror-thriller that brought vampires back, won mainstream audiences, and also made more at the box office. The fact that it’s a horror movie could hold it back, but that all depends on whether Academy voters side with One Battle’s prestige cinema or Sinners’ ubiquitous success on all fronts.
Ryan Coogler for Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson (PTA) is the heavy favorite for One Battle After Another, but the unlikely (but possible) pick would be Ryan Coogler. Coogler’s previous work for Creed and Marvel movies didn’t make much of a splash, besides the surprising Best Picture nomination Black Panther got back in 2019. It got that far due to its cultural impact; if that’s the case, Sinners and Coogler could do the same this year.
That all said, PTA’s movie record, and with no Oscar wins yet, makes this a hard sell. He won the top film prize at the Directors Guild of America recently, and for many, it’s his turn to get the Best Director award, among others.
Michael B. Jordan for Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet has run away with Best Actor predictions so far, while Michael B. Jordan and Leonardo DiCaprio are neck and neck. DiCaprio has an Oscar, so we’d say Jordan is the better runner-up choice. He’s almost a decade older than Chalamet, and the Academy tends to shy away from giving Best Actor awards to (relatively) younger stars.
While Chalamet played against type, Jordan played twins and gave each character the nuance they demanded. His impressive technical performance wrapped in box-office gold could be enough to sway Academy voters.
Rose Byrne for Best Actress
By all accounts, Jessie Buckley is favorite for Best Actress for her role in Hamnet, which won at the Golden Globes and trails behind Sinners in most Oscar categories. Some markets have Buckley as 92% likely to take it, so you’d be looking at long odds here.
In second place is Rose Byrne, for her role in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Byrne picked up a Golden Globe for Best Actress for this one, and is a more veteran actress compared to Buckley. This could sway voters to give her flowers for this role.
<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>Culture’s cover star and award season contender Rose Byrne speaks about her pending Academy Award and BAFTA nominations, the unpredictable path of her film If I Had Legs I’d Kick You and the line at the Golden Globes that keeps ‘following her’ since her triumphant win. Read the… <a href=”https://t.co/7sOfERws0g”>pic.twitter.com/7sOfERws0g</a></p>— The Australian (@australian) <a href=”https://twitter.com/australian/status/2016489091186204802?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>January 28, 2026</a></blockquote> <script async src=”https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>
The 2026 Oscars are set for March 15th, where we’ll find out if the clear favorites will sweep the award show after all. If not, some early predictors could make a lot of money.
