WHO GETS THE POPCORN? PREDICTING THE 2008 MTV MOVIE AWARDS

I love predicting the winners at awards shows. Even the dumb awards shows. Kid’s Choice, Teen Choice, People’s Choice, I even had some fun with the ill-fated AFI awards back in 2001 (that was the one with ten Best Picture nominees), but the MTV Movie Awards just may be the dumbest of the dumb awards.

MTV’s relevance is long gone and they are currently embroiled in a bitter feud with VH1 over who can have the most embarrassing reality programming. Still, they hold their Movie Awards every year, handing out spray-painted buckets of aluminum popcorn to whoever is willing to show up. Every year I watch, becoming increasingly insulted by commercials for the network’s other shows, and I bet you do the same thing.

Keep in mind, these are predictions, not picks. If it were up to me, I’d just hand Judd Apatow a duffle bag full of popcorns and tell him to come up with his own categories. This is just how I think MTV viewers will vote, based on what I imagine the MTV audience to be.

BEST MOVIE “Juno” “Transformers” “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” “I Am Legend” “Superbad” “National Treasure: Book of Secrets”
This race comes down to two movies that have wins from last year on their side. “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” won best movie, which gives “At World’s End” something of a pedigree. But “Transformers” actually won an award before it was even released with Most Anticipated Movie of the Summer. “Transformers” was a major presence last year, which will lead to a number of victories this year, including Best Movie.
BEST MALE PERFORMANCE Will Smith – “I Am Legend” Shia LaBeouf – “Transformers” Denzel Washington – “American Gangster” Matt Damon – “The Bourne Ultimatum” Michael Cera – “Juno”
I think we’ll se a split between the two young nominees Cera and LaBeouf. LaBeouf’s name is hotter at the moment thanks to the new “Indiana Jones.” That and the night’s “Transformers” bias will get him the win.
BEST FEMALE PERFORMANCE Ellen Page – “Juno” Keira Knightley – “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” Katherine Heigl – “Knocked Up” Amy Adams – “Enchanted” Jessica Biel – “I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry”
Page played the character that had the most in common with the MTV audience. But Knightley needs to win something for bringing some beauty to the dingy “Pirates” movies. And no, Orlando Bloom doesn’t count.
BEST VILLAIN Johnny Depp – “Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street” Denzel Washington – “American Gangster” Angelina Jolie – “Beowulf” Topher Grace – “Spider-Man 3” Javier Bardem – “No Country For Old Men”
First of all, Depp shouldn’t even be nominated. Was Todd really a villain? Technically, sure, but Alan Rickman was the antagonist. Bardem has a good chance, since he won the Oscar for his instantly-iconic Anton Chigurh, but Jolie has gotten a lot of press for receiving this nomination, and she was the only memorable thing about “Beowulf.” I say she takes it.
BEST COMEDIC PERFORMANCE Johnny Depp – “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End” Adam Sandler – “I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry” Jonah Hill – “Superbad” Seth Rogen – “Knocked Up” Amy Adams – “Enchanted”
There is absolutely no reason why one of the Apatow leads (Hill and Rogen) shouldn’t take this award. The only question is which one. “Superbad” seems more favored in terms of other nominations, but Rogen was definitely the lead in “Knocked Up” while Hill was basically a co-lead with Michael Cera. Since Cera isn’t nominated, I assume voters aren’t keen on giving the award to either member of the “Superbad” team, so I see Rogen taking it.
BEST FIGHT Matt Damon vs. Joey Ansah – “The Bourne Ultimatum” Tobey Maguire vs. James Franco – “Spider-Man 3” Hayden Christensen vs. Jamie Bell – “Jumper” Sean Faris vs. Cam Gigandet – “Never Back Down” Chris Tucker & Jackie Chan vs. Sun Ming Ming – “Rush Hour 3” Alien vs. Predator – “Alien vs. Predator: Requiem”
Six nominees and they couldn’t find a place for the bathhouse fight from “Eastern Promises”? “The Bourne Ultimatum” should probably win something for its action sequences, this is as good a time as any to do so. But “Alien vs. Predator” is the easiest to vote for since the fight is right there in the title. Plus, the Alien and Predator don’t have silly human limitations. I say it goes to “AvP.”
BEST KISS Shia LaBeouf and Sarah Roemer – “Disturbia” Amy Adams and Patrick Dempsey – “Enchanted” Daniel Radcliffe and Katie Leung – “Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix” Ellen Page and Michael Cera – “Juno” Briana Evigan and Robert Hoffman – “Step Up 2 The Streets”
This is a boring category when there’s nothing same-gender or gimmicky (like the upside-down “Spider-Man” kiss) in the race. People made a big to-do about the “Harry Potter” kiss. It’ll probably win.
BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE Zac Efron – “Hairspray”   Seth Rogen – “Knocked Up”   Jonah Hill – “Superbad”   Michael Cera – “Superbad”   Chris Brown – “This Christmas”   Nikki Blonsky – “Hairspray”   Megan Fox – “Transformers”   Christopher Mintz-Plasse – “Superbad”
The “Hairspray” and “Superbad” actors will probably cancel each other out, making this a three-way race. Few people saw “This Christmas,” Brown can probably be eliminated. “Transformers” helped Fox’s star power, but it didn’t make her a household name. Rogen is my pick, especially since he’s a factor in other categories.
BEST SUMMER MOVIE SO FAR “Iron Man”   “Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull”   “Sex and the City: The Movie”   “Speed Racer”   “The Chronicles Of Narnia: Prince Caspian”
“Iron Man” has been out the longest, it may have been forgotten. There can’t be that many “Sex and the City” fans (Ed. Note: And by the time the awards are presented, the film will have been out all of three days). “Speed Racer” was a bomb. The MTV audience is a little too old for “Narnia.” “Indiana Jones” would probably win this even if it didn’t have MTV boy toy Shia LaBeouf, but it does, which makes its chances even better.